game ape Mexico, Betting Trump Is Bluffing on Tariffs, Sees an Opportunity

Like much of the Mexican business worldgame ape, Daniel Córdova finds himself grappling with an enormous variable looming across the American border: the imminent return of Donald J. Trump to the White House.

Mr. Córdova oversees a factory outside the city of Monterrey that makes heating and air-conditioning units for Trane, an American company. The last time Mr. Trump was president, he unleashed a trade war against China that proved beneficial to Mexican industry. Companies that relied on Chinese factories to make goods for the American market shifted production to plants in Mexico to avoid Mr. Trump’s tariffs.

That trend, known as “nearshoring,” gained momentum as President Biden extended tariffs on Chinese imports. Soaring shipping prices during the pandemic heightened the pitfalls of relying on factories across oceans. For companies seeking to close the distance between plants in Asia and customers in the United States, Mexico beckoned as an attractive place to manufacture their wares.

Then last month, President-elect Trump threatened the economics of nearshoring by promising to impose 25 percent tariffs on all goods entering the United States from Mexico and Canada. Mexican industry was confronted with a high-stakes question: Was Mr. Trump bluffing, hoping the threat would pressure the Mexican government to halt the movement of people and drugs toward the border? Or was he really preparing to put tariffs on Mexican imports to force companies to move production to the United States?

Donald J. Trump did not mention Mr. Robinson once at a campaign event in Wilmington, N.C., on Saturday, and several Trump fans who attended said they understood why it was necessary to distance Mr. Trump from Mr. Robinson. The former president endorsed Mr. Robinson in March and held a fund-raiser for him at his home in Palm Beach, Fla., last year.

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Mr. Trump would be 82 on Election Day in 2028, older than President Biden is now. This year’s election is already his third consecutive time being the Republican nominee, after he won in 2016 and lost in 2020. In the modern party system, only Franklin Delano Roosevelt has ever received a major party’s nomination four times, though a handful have matched Mr. Trump with three.

ImageA factory outside Monterrey that makes heating and air-conditioning units for Trane, an American company.Credit...Alejandro Cegarra for The New York TimesImageThe Trane factory is considering whether to shift orders to U.S. plants if tariffs take effect.Credit...Alejandro Cegarra for The New York Times

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